A new study by the University of Oxford, the University of Nairobi, and the University of Amsterdam sheds light on the socio-economic potential of road development projects around the Aberdare Range in central Kenya. This comprehensive analysis highlights the benefits and drawbacks of proposed road projects, particularly focusing on the “Mau-Mau road project” and the potential extension over the Aberdare mountains.
Background
Road development and large infrastructure projects are often seen as key drivers of economic growth and poverty reduction in developing countries. However, it’s a misconception that all roads automatically bring benefits. Some may carry significant economic and environmental costs. Therefore, it’s crucial to evaluate these developments against other options to ensure decisions are beneficial for both the people and the economy.
Context
Several road developments are planned in central Kenya, including the significant “Mau-Mau road project” – a 30 billion Ksh (280 million USD) initiative to construct over 500 km of road on the eastern edge of the Aberdare National Park (ANP) and Aberdare Forest Reserve. Proposals to extend the Mau-Mau road over the Aberdare mountains also exist, but no comprehensive cost-benefit analysis has been conducted on these scenarios until now.
Major Findings
Ihithe – Aberdare Forest – Kahuruko – Ndunyu Njeru Road (52 kilometres)
- Building a road over the Aberdare range and through the ANP offers almost no socio-economic benefits.
- There is no evidence it would bring people closer to main roads or reduce travel time to markets.
- The only potential benefit is a slightly reduced travel time and lower fuel costs between Nyeri-Naivasha and Nyeri-Gilgil. However, this is conditional on the road being upgraded to a secondary road suitable for speeds greater than 50 KpH, which is unlikely given the mountainous terrain.
- The high gradient sections of this route could severely impact traffic flow, making it less viable.
Kariamu-Ndunyu Njeru Route (33 kilometre)
- The road will reduce travel times by 1.3 – 6.5% on 11 routes.
- It will increase the number of people within 2 km of a tarmac road by 177,000.
- It will improve travel times to major towns for over 25,000 people.
- The road will not pass through any natural habitat in the ANP or Forest Reserve, ensuring minimal environmental impact.
These findings suggest that the Kariamu-Ndunyu Njeru route will stimulate economic growth and development in the affected areas without significant environmental harm.
